效果推理对新创企业绩效的影响：路径和情境[1]

彭学兵，毕婷，刘玥伶

摘要：效果推理决策逻辑在创业情境得到越来越多的验证，然而效果推理是否有利于提高新创企业绩效仍是一个有争议的学术问题。本文研究效果推理对新创企业成长绩效的直接影响，及创业资源整合的中介作用和环境动态性的调节作用。通过对307份新创企业问卷数据的实证分析发现，效果推理的实验、利用权变和先前承诺三个维度对新创企业成长绩效都具有正向影响，而可承担损失维度对新创企业成长绩效的影响不显著；创业资源内聚和创业资源耦合在实验与新创企业成长绩效、利用权变与新创企业成长绩效的正向关系中具有正向中介作用，创业资源内聚在先前承诺与新创企业绩效的正向关系中具有正向中介作用；环境动态性在实验与创业资源内聚以及实验与创业资源耦合之间具有负向调节作用。文章最后还检验了一个有中介的调节效应模型。文章弥补了中国情境下效果推理实证研究缺乏的不足，并对效果推理与新创企业绩效的关系研究贡献了文献。

关键字：效果推理；创业资源整合；环境动态性；资源内聚；资源耦合

Does effectuation improve new venture performance?

Abstract:Effectuation is empirical tested in context of entrepreneurship in more and more literatures, but it’s still a controversial question about whether effectuation can improve new venture performance. This paper studies thedirect impact of effectuation on new venture performance, the mediating effect of entrepreneurial resource combination and the moderating effect of environmental dynamics. Examining 307 new venture's data, it is found that while the principle of affordable loss has no significant impact on new venture performance, the principle of experiment, exploiting contingencies and pre-commitment have significantly positive effect on new venture performance. It is also found that entrepreneurial resource cohesion and coupling positively mediate the relationship between experiment and new venture performance, exploiting contingencies and new venture performance.Entrepreneurial resource cohesion positively mediates the positive relationship between pre-commitment and new venture performance. Empirical studies also show thatenvironmental dynamics negatively moderates the relationship between experiment and entrepreneurial resource combination (including entrepreneurial resource cohesion and entrepreneurial resource coupling). The paper also empirically checked a mediated moderation model. The paper covers the shortage of empirical study of effectuation in China’s context, and contributes to literature on research of the relationship between effectuation and new venture performance. 

Key Words: Effectuation Entrepreneurial resource combination Environmental dynamics Resource cohesion Resource coupling

[1]本文受国家自然科学基金项目（项目号：71672181）的资助。